Are Interest Rates about to Rise?

I read a report on a mortgage broker news site yesterday saying that markets were expecting a Bank of England interest rate rise in April or May this year. This will of course have a knock on effect on the cost of borrowing from banks and building societies.

The rise(s) will likely be by a quarter of one percent each time so individually the changes will not be dramatic. However there are other factors that have given us historically low interest rates over the last few years.

Those with good memories will remember the Bank of England and UK Treasury Funding for Lending scheme launched in 2012 and designed to encourage lenders to lend to more households and businesses. The scheme (in my opinion) was a success and contributed to a prolonged period of extremely competitive lending in the UK.

There was also another scheme launched in August 2016 that flew somewhat under the radar called the Term Funding Scheme (TFS). This was part of a package of measures to help stimulate growth in the aftermath of the decision to leave the EU in 2016. This included the swift reduction of the Bank of England base rate to 0.25%, the measures “designed to provide additional support to growth and to achieve a sustainable return of inflation”. The target inflation rate being 2%. This TFS scheme comes to an end this month so that means banks and building societies will have to revert back to unsubsidised lending. Potentially this could mean an increase in rates.

Should You Secure A Mortgage Product Ahead Of Any Rise?

The article I read concluded that, assuming the above TFS is not extended, that rates will have to rise and that as mortgage brokers we should make hay while the sun shines. Certainly in the last year I have arranged mortgages with interest rates of under 1% over two years, I don’t think we’ll be seeing that again. Currently I think five year fixed rates do look good value for money with plenty of lenders offering sub 2% deals for five years.

If you are looking to arrange a mortgage now I’d weigh up your options and also consider what personal circumstances may change in the future when making your decision.

While, I would be delighted to help you find the best mortgage deal for your circumstances, I’m not going to scare you into acting today. Get in touch and we can discuss your options, stress test some product, and look at whether now is the opportune time for you to secure a mortgage (or remortgage).

Call us on 01252 759233 or email info@thesurreymortgagebroker.co.uk.

A MORTGAGE IS A LOAN SECURED AGAINST YOUR HOME OR PROPERTY. YOUR HOME OR PROPERTY  MAY BE REPOSSESSED IF YOU DO NOT KEEP UP REPAYMENTS ON YOUR MORTGAGE OR ANY OTHER DEBT SECURED ON IT. 

Interest Rates...I may have been wrong!

I often tell my kids that they should hold their hands up if they are in the wrong, well it appears my recent blog about Bank of England interest rates may have been written in haste! If you must, you can read it here. In fact since publishing the last blog all the talk has been of an imminent base rate rise. Mark Carney even said as much last week.

So what of the outlook? Well the economists are saying a little rise in the interest rates will help in preventing the economy running away with itself, which will help keep a lid on inflation.

The MPC do not meet until November now so we have a bit of time to breathe and a bit of time for more news to counter the rise or add fuel to the talk of a rise. I have just received an email from Barclays saying they are withdrawing some of their headline fixed rate deals this week and they expect the replacement deals to be higher, this to me could be an indication that their boffins see a rise in the offing too.

Still, as the Bank rate is 0.25% right now and there are only two rate announcements left this year I’m going to stick with my original prediction of the year ending at 0.25%. In my corner we have had nine base rate meetings since the historic reduction of August 2016 and in all but three of those the votes were unanimous in keeping rates at the all time low of 0.25%. The last three meetings have seen two of the nine committee members vote for a rise to 0.5%. Will there be enough of a swing before the year is out to push the rate back up? I’m not convinced.

However, if the rate is pushed up it is only going to go to 0.5% and that is still very low, and given the huge uncertainty surrounding the economy at the moment I think the Bank will leave it alone at 0.5% for some time, if indeed they raise the rate at all.

In conclusion I may be wrong about interest rates staying put but please do not panic, I cannot see them going high, we are not in the 1990’s now.

Give me a call if you would like to discuss this further, and how it may affect your mortgage or your options for taking out a new mortgage. Please don’t hold me to any of my predictions though…!

Bank of England Base Rate - Don't believe the hype!

Last week the Bank of England voted to keep the base rate at the all time low of 0.25%; the rate it has been since the post referendum, recession avoiding drop of 2016. The voting was 7-2 in favour of maintaining the rate, this has been pretty much the pattern for the last year yet this time there was a lot of media noise about an imminent rate rise.

While I understand the need to have something to report I wholeheartedly disagree with the predictions of a rate rise in 2017. I have consistently maintained in previous blogs (go look!) that rates are not going to rise significantly given the economic climate.

Will Interest Rates Rise?

There are one or two indicators that suggest the monetary policy committee may lean towards a rise. The first is the level of employment, some good news statistics were released last week stating that employment has never been higher in the UK and those claiming unemployment benefits has never been lower. I remember a few years ago when Mark Carney suggested that rates might go up when unemployment fell below 7% and he quickly had to change tack when unemployment fell below that level. It just was not the right time to raise rates.

The other main indicator of a potential rate rise is inflation; again traditional economic theory suggests to kerb inflation you raise interest rates. I have to say this theory has carried less weight since the credit crunch of 2008, inflation has fluctuated up and down and interest rates have been broadly the same, suggesting to me that the decision makers are taking a more pragmatic view.

So why do I think rates are not going up? Again there are likely to be many factors that the decision makers take into account however as I am not one of those people I like to take a more simplistic outlook on these things.

Firstly as a nation we are pretty highly geared, what I mean by that is that we have enjoyed borrowing money in recent years, the low interest rates have fuelled a lot of borrowing and frankly a significant rise in rates would see a lot of us struggling. Put simply if you are paying more on your mortgage each month you are going to spend less elsewhere and I don’t think the economy can’t take that kind of hit.

Uncertainty fuels doubt in the economy and I think the post Brexit uncertainty has led to a fall in the housing market. I can only speak personally here but it just feels much quieter than it did 18 months ago. If the Bank of England put rates up, even by a little bit, that is going to add fuel to that uncertainty and the housing market may suffer more as a result.

Finally the main reasoning for my argument is wages. In previous blogs I have stated that only when wage inflation starts outstripping actual inflation will the Bank of England decide to raise rates. All you need to do is listen or watch the news to see that wages are most certainly not rising in line with inflation. The 1% pay cap on public sector employees for the last few years is going to take a bit of time to catch up with inflation, even if they get their 3+% this year. The headlines last week were that wages have actually fallen in real terms meaning we all have less money in our pockets. In these circumstances I think it highly unlikely that the Monetary Policy Committee will vote in favour of a rise.

If you’re concerned about interest rates and your mortgage, please don’t hesitate to contact me for an informal chat about your circumstances and to discuss your options.

Inflation, Interest Rates and House Prices

There has been some interesting data released this weekwhich all has an effect on the economy; but what does it mean for those of us with an eye on the housing market?

Inflation has fallen this month to 2.6%, this is the CPI (Consumer Prices Index) measure and it is down from 2.9% in May. Historically the fiscal measure to try and stem inflation would be to raise interest rates but as I’ve said before these are not normal times. Since the financial crash of 2008 interest rates have been super low and inflation has rollercoastered its way along. It seems like other factors are effecting inflation, the value of the pound for example can have an impact. If you need to import goods to produce your product and the pound is weaker than before then you are going to increase prices. I think this has been the main driver in pushing inflation since the Brexit vote of June 2016.

With this slight drop in inflation perhaps we are seeing a levelling off or a “settling down’ as Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, said last month.

The fact inflation has fallen a little does ease pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates and perhaps just sit out the Brexit negotiations and see what they bring. The Brexit negotiating period may well be a challenging time for the British Economy.

As I have repeated many times in my blog, keep an eye on wage inflation. This is still low and until it outstrips inflation then I can’t see a significant interest rate rise.

So with interest rates set to remain low for now what does that mean for house prices?

Well, interest rates are not the only factor in house prices. As my old economics teacher once said, “all you need to know is supply and demand and you’ll pass your exam” (he wasn’t entirely right on that one!). However housing is all about supply and demand. In the UK we have a housing shortage, more people want a house than there are houses, to put it simply. Therefore this demand for housing will keep pressure on the prices and cause them to rise. In June, RICS reported growth had slowed to 4.7% year to date. Slowed, but prices still rising.

On top of this if you factor in the report earlier this month that said estate agents have the lowest stock of properties since 1978. As always prices do see regional variation. If we look here in Surrey I can see low availability and high demand for areas within commuting distance of London with good schools, and I just can’t see prices falling in those areas.

So if you are selling in theory you should get a good price for your property, if you are buying expect to pay at the top of your budget.

With interest rates low, now’s a good time to review your current mortgage arrangements and see whether you can get a better rate by remortgaging. If you’re looking to move house and require a mortgage, you will also need to explore what mortgage lender’s are prepared to lend you to enable your purchase. If you require any support finding the right mortgage product, or would just like to talk through your options, call me on 01252 759233 or email richard@thesurreymortgagebroker.co.uk

What does the Election 2017 Result mean for the Mortgage Market? If anything?

So unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last few days you will know that Theresa May sort of won the General Election and has formed a minority government. The Conservatives won the most seats but fell short of an overall majority, which they wanted to be able to put themselves in a strong negotiating position when it comes to the Brexit issue.

Now that the dust has started to settle from the initial shock of the result what can we expect in the coming months and years for mortgages and the housing market?

The Brexit Effect

Running a business that is largely dependent on the housing market I can say from my perspective that the decision to leave the EU has affected the housing market. This may not be the view of other brokers but I would say that housing stock has fallen and the number of transactions have fallen. It feels very much like the housing market was post credit crunch. It also feels like there are fewer buyers around as people perhaps decide to sit tight instead of making major life decisions, like moving house.

The difference between the credit crunch time and now, is that money is cheap. It is easier to get a really competitive rate and this makes moving house still a viable transaction, as the interest rates are so low.

As ever with the housing market there will be regional variations. House prices are still rising nationally but not as quickly as before the referendum, probably a good thing. It is the reasons behind this slowing that might be a concern. My opinion is that this is down to lack of demand. If you thought your house was worth £x in Jan 2016 you might get a few interested parties competing with each other and actually achieve £x plus a bit more. Now the likelihood of competing buyers is pretty low.

Strong and Stable?

In order to bring some clarity to the country’s future Theresa May wanted a strong mandate to be able to show our European friends that she was fully supported by the great British Public. Unfortunately for her it didn’t quite work out that way. Commentators are now saying this might lead to a softening of the “hard Brexit” stance taken by the Tory party. I think largely it has led to uncertainty, which is not ideal. Uncertainty is what has led to the slowing of the housing market since the referendum so therefore if this uncertainty continues then I can’t see anything changing. Some readers might however feel positive about the election result, if the softening of the Brexit does happen then those “Remainers” might be appeased and feel more positive about the future.

What About Interest Rates?

Inflation is up to 2.9% and over the prediction made by the Bank of England (they said 2.8% by the end of the year). Historically a rise in inflation would mean a rise in interest rates but in this post financial crisis world in which we live this has certainly not been the case.

What the election result will not lead to is a rise in interest rates. Interest rates are out of government control and this is a good thing. The Bank of England make the decision and I don’t think rates are going anywhere until 2019 – that my friends is a prediction, not a promise!

Why do I think this? Although unemployment is low and we have the highest level of employment for a long time the key factor is wages. Wage inflation has been lower than price inflation for most of the last ten years. You will need to see a prolonged period of wage inflation outpacing price inflation before you see a rise in interest rates.

With the right deposit/equity you can secure a five year fixed rate mortgage at below 2%, if the lenders are happy lending for that length of time at such a low rate then they don’t think rates are going up either.

What Should You Do If You Want To Move Or Remortgage?

I would advise you to speak to a mortgage broker, like myself, or a financial advisor and discuss your specific circumstances. If the Election result or Brexit negotiations is creating uncertainty in your life – such as your job security – it may be that you could remortgage now to give yourself a bit more peace of mind.

If you’re looking to buy and selling a property is not an issue, it’s a buyer’s market for the moment and those low interest rates may also work in your favour.

Contact me if you would like to discuss any of the above in more detail or have an informal chat about your specific requirements.