Navigating and maximising opportunities in today’s mortgage market

Finding the right mortgage deal has become increasingly challenging. The current market, shaped by constantly changing deals and record-high product availability, presents a unique set of opportunities and challenges for borrowers. This environment is poignant for those thinking of getting a mortgage.

Whether you're a first-time buyer daunted by the myriad of choices or a homeowner weighing the benefits of remortgaging, understanding the current mortgage landscape is the first step towards making empowered financial decisions. 

Individuals looking to secure their mortgage are discovering that the most attractive deals are quickly disappearing. Moneyfacts reported on the 14th of March that the typical availability of the best mortgage product has dropped sharply to just 15 days, a significant decrease from 28 days at the beginning of February last month.

This marks the lowest average availability recorded in six months and is actually approaching the all-time low of 12 days seen in July 2023, during the peak of mortgage rates. The news might surprise you, especially as inflation is slowing down and the Bank of England has maintained the base rate at 5.25% since August, suggesting the market should be steadier.

Recently, five lending institutions announced rate increases, including major UK banks like Santander, NatWest, Co-op Bank, and Principality Building Society, with Halifax also set to raise some of its rates. Nicholas Mendes, Mortgage Technical Manager at John Charcol, mentioned that mortgage rates are in constant flux, sometimes to the point where lenders adjust rates twice in a single week, often giving barely any notice of these changes.

Mortgage brokers have been advocating for a minimum 24-hour notice commitment to allow clients a fair chance at securing the best deals, aligning with consumer duty principles. However, this has mainly seen agreement from building societies, with NatWest being the notable bank to recently commit to providing 24 hours' notice or as much warning as feasible.

Why are lenders withdrawing mortgage offers?

Deals are being withdrawn by lenders, due to SONIA swap rates, which reflect market expectations and pricing for fixed mortgage rates. These swap agreements are crucial for mortgage lenders to mitigate the interest rate risk associated with offering fixed-rate mortgages. In simpler terms, swap rates provide a glimpse into lenders' expectations for future interest rates and heavily influence their pricing strategies.

Currently, two-year swap rates stand at 4.46%, while five-year swaps are at 3.85%. This is an increase from the beginning of the year, which saw two-year swaps at 4.04% and five-year swaps at 3.4%. 

Karen Noye, a mortgage expert at Quilter, described navigating the mortgage market right now, as challenging due to the continual shifts and updates. She mentioned that the primary driver behind the changes in mortgage products is undoubtedly the swap rates. Even though inflation and the base rate have stabilised, market forecasts and predictions about future interest rates and inflation are constantly evolving, which then influences market rates.

Lenders also tweak their products based on their capacity to process applications. If there's a surge in applications causing delays, they might adjust their rates to moderate demand. However, in the current market climate, with transactions remaining low, this scenario is less frequent. For borrowers and brokers alike, the current market conditions are proving to be challenging. Delays or hesitations in submitting applications could lead to significant disappointment, with borrowers missing out on rates they assumed were locked in.

Karen Noye advises those considering a new mortgage, to start by getting your paperwork sorted to avoid any delays in application or securing a rate. Lenders' notices for rate withdrawals can be incredibly short, sometimes just a few hours. Consulting with a mortgage professional is more important than ever for navigating the market and finding a deal that fits individual circumstances well. Noye also emphasises not rushing into accepting a deal out of panic; getting proper advice is key to avoiding costly mistakes. Also, preparing at least six months ahead can be particularly beneficial, especially for remortgaging.

Mortgage Options hit a 16-year peak

Despite the rapid changes in the availability of top mortgage deals, the breadth of options in the market has hit a 16-year peak, reports Moneyfacts.

The total number of mortgage options available climbed month-over-month to 6,004, marking the highest point since March 2008. Rachel Springall, a finance expert at Moneyfacts, observed that this past March saw the most significant rise in mortgage choice in six months, with the total number of mortgages available to borrowers surpassing 6,000, a figure not seen in 16 years.

A closer look at different loan-to-value (LTV) categories brings encouraging news, especially for those with smaller deposits. Specifically, the selection of products at 90% LTV increased by 80 options month-over-month, reaching its highest level in four years (since March 2020) with 779 deals. After a previous decline, this rebound in product choice (which dropped to 681 in February 2024) is particularly noteworthy. 

Furthermore, for those able to provide only a 5% deposit, the market now offers over 300 mortgage deals at 95% LTV, the most since June 2022. However, Springall notes a caveat for first-time buyers, who still face hurdles with affordability amidst fluctuating house prices and a scarcity of affordable housing. This challenge is compounded by the current average rates for two-year fixed deals at 90% and 95% LTV, which stand at 5.99%.

In today’s changing mortgage market, highlighted by a surge in options to a 16-year high and rapid adjustments in deals, the importance of expert advice has never been clearer. The current market offers both opportunities and challenges for those wanting to get a mortgage.

Mortgage Brokers are here to provide you with the personalised advice needed to make well-informed decisions. Whether you’re exploring your first mortgage, remortgaging, or navigating rate changes, I’m here to align your financial goals with the current market conditions, explain the documentation needed and help you get the best deal possible. 

If you’re interested, please do reach out, and let’s talk about securing the best deal for you.

Mortgage News UK: Could this pique your interest?

Keeping up with the latest mortgage news is crucial for anyone looking to buy a home or refinance their mortgage in the UK. It's a very competitive marketplace with frequent changes in interest rates, new lending criteria, and the overall direction of the housing market are major factors that have a big impact on making the right financial decisions. With the Bank of England's recent actions and the wider economic environment influencing the mortgage landscape, it's important to have access to the latest information from across the market, and that's one of the ways that we can help to make things easier for you. In this article, we'll cover the essentials, from updates on mortgage rates to insights into the local housing market, aiming to provide clear and useful information to help you navigate your mortgage options with confidence.

Pause in Mortgage Rate Dive

It looks like the rollercoaster ride of mortgage rates is taking a brief pause after months of diving down. Since October, lenders have been on a bit of a spree, slashing fixed mortgage rates left, right, and centre. But as we stepped into February, the trend hit a slight snag. The average two-year fixed rate mortgage, which was chilling at 5.56 per cent at the start of the month, started to nudge up to 5.59 per cent, source Moneyfacts. And it's not going solo; the five-year fix has also crept up from 5.18% to 5.23%.

Mark the date, 2nd February, because that's when Nationwide Building Society decided to shake things up a bit, bumping up rates on some of its deals by up to 0.30% points. But don't get too jittery yet—it seems like lenders are more in a 'let's wait and see' mood rather than signalling a full-on rate hike tsunami.

Rewind to last year, and you'll remember a series of base rate hikes and less-than-cheery inflation news pushing the average two-year fixed mortgage rates to a peak of 6.86% during the summer, Moneyfacts points out, with five-year fixes not too far behind at 6.37%.

However, the tide began to turn as inflation started to ease off, and the Bank of England kept the base rate steady at 5.25% since September. This prompted a wave of rate cuts from mortgage lenders, a trend that boldly continued into 2024. January was particularly buzzing, with over 50 mortgage lenders cutting their residential rates, some even going for round two.

Even though average rates have inched up over the past week, the cream of the crop deals are still hanging around where they were at January's end. For those hunting for bargains, the lowest rates are flirting with just below 4% for a five-year fix or a smidge above 4 per cent for two years.

In the grand scheme of things, today's mortgage rates are still playing in the higher leagues compared to the good old days before 2022 threw us a curveball. Cast your mind back just over two years, and you'd find the average rates for a five-year fix lounging at a comfy 2.5%, with two-year fixes even more snug at 2.25 per cent.

And get this – back in October 2021, you'd have stumbled upon mortgage rates that were practically giving it away, ducking under the 1% mark. Reminding us just how much has changed in a relatively short span.

The Ups and Downs of UK Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates in recent years have been a rollercoaster, starting with a rise in late 2021 due to inflation, prompting the Bank of England's base rate hike. September's unfunded tax cuts by Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng caused market turmoil, but when Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned in October and new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt reversed policies, stability returned. However, 2023 brought more twists, with high inflation forecasts pushing rates up. Yet, a June inflation report surprised, leading experts to adjust peak rate predictions to below 6%. The narrative highlights the unpredictability of mortgage rates amidst economic and political changes.

With subsequent positive inflation readings, the market consensus now pegs the base rate peak at 5.25 %, aligning with current levels. With eyes now set on 2024, the markets are abuzz with talks of base rate cuts. It's a tale of anticipation, showcasing the unpredictable ebbs and flows of the UK's mortgage rates saga.

How Future Base Rate Expectations Shape Today's Mortgage Rates

If you're in a fixed-term mortgage deal, fretting over today's base rate is a bit like watching last week's weather forecast – interesting, but not immediately useful. What really matters is where the financial soothsayers predict the base rate is headed down the line.

Banks and lenders are a bit like fortune tellers with their crystal balls, trying to predict the base rate's next moves. They adjust their fixed mortgage rates based on where they reckon the base rate will max out and how long they think high inflation will stick around like an unwelcome party guest.

Predictions for the base rate's peak have cooled off from a scorching 6.5% down to a more temperate 5.2%. As 2023 was packing up its bags, the market was betting on six base rate cuts in 2024. Following a hotter-than-expected inflation report at 4% (the markets had their money on 3.8%), the expectations have been adjusted.

These forecasts are mirrored in something called swap rates which give us a sneak peek into the banking sector's predictions for interest rates.

As of 5 February, the swap shop tells us five-year rates are sitting pretty at 3.56%, with two-year swaps a touch higher at 4.15% – both figures lounging comfortably below the current base rate. It's a slight uptick from the start of the year but a dip from the 17 January spike, when the latest inflation news sent swap rates to 3.75% and 4.29%, respectively.

Yet, rewind to the summer of 2023, and you'd find five-year swaps flexing above 5 per cent, with two-year counterparts pushing 6%. It's a reminder that in the world of mortgages, the only constant is change – and keeping an eye on the future can make all the difference.

Stability Amid Predictions

Starting in 2023, there were many predictions of a severe downturn in the housing market due to high mortgage rates and inflation. Yet, the expected crash hasn't happened. Depending on the house price index you look at, property prices throughout 2023 either decreased only slightly or increased a bit.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports a 2.1% decrease in the average sold price in the year to November 2023. In contrast, Halifax, based on its mortgage approvals, observed a 1.7% increase in house prices over the year to December.

Nationwide saw house prices in January rise by 0.7%, with the average property price moving from £257,443 to £257,656. Predictions for the next year vary, with some expecting a further decline in prices by up to 5% in certain areas. However, there's also a positive outlook from some quarters.

Knight Frank, earlier this week, revised its forecast from a 4% decline to a 3% increase in house prices this year, citing falling inflation leading to lower interest rates as a key factor. This sentiment is shared by some estate agents who note a change in the market due to decreasing mortgage rates.

Simon Gerrard of Martyn Gerrard estate agents mentioned a noticeable increase in buyer interest, with a 20% rise in registrations compared to last year. Alex Lyle from Antony Roberts estate agency also highlighted a significant improvement in market sentiment since the start of the year, attributed largely to the adjustments in mortgage rates.

In summary, despite early fears of a downturn, the housing market has shown resilience, with a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook for the future.

How can a Mortgage Broker help?

As we look ahead, it’s clear that change is the only constant in the mortgage market. For borrowers, this means being prepared, staying informed, and ready to adapt to whatever comes next.

Clearly, there are a lot of moving parts when it comes to the current trends of UK mortgage rates. It’s a lot to keep up with and can be confusing for those who don’t understand the details or have access to all the latest information, that’s why Mortgage Brokers are here to help. 

As your mortgage broker, I'm here to understand your needs, break down options, and make the mortgage process less confusing. My goal is to make things easy for you and provide peace of mind in what can be a daunting experience. With over 20 years of experience, I've helped countless clients navigate through market ups and downs to find the best solution for them.

Navigating Regional Trends and Brokerage Guidance

Halifax's recent House Price Index has certainly received a lot of attention as it's counter to what was expected a few months ago. It reports a steady uptick in UK house prices, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise. The average house price has risen by 1.3% from December 2023, now standing at £291,029—a cash increase of £3,924. Twelve-month figures show a robust 2.5% growth, the highest since January 2023. 

Estate agents attribute an uptick in buyer confidence to a combination of this data and recent reductions in mortgage interest rates, resulting in increased property valuations, listings, and viewings. However, lingering concerns about the cost of living make the market price-sensitive, cautioning against over-optimism.

People have been pouring over this data to understand what it might mean for the year ahead. Marc von Grundherr, director at London estate agents Benham and Reeves, has anticipated a fruitful year for the property market, citing a surge in house prices, new listings, and buyer offers. 

Despite heightened housing activity, Kim Kinnaird, director at Halifax Mortgages, notes that interest rates remain relatively high compared to recent lows, with demand continuing to outstrip supply. Affordability remains a challenge, with the average deposit now reaching £53,414, prompting many new buyers to purchase jointly. Looking ahead, Kinnaird warns of possible modest price declines amidst ongoing economic uncertainty.

Insights from Estate Agents: Positive Outlook for the Housing Market

Other estate agents echo Halifax's findings, confirming an upward trend in the housing market. Some anticipate sharp price increases in certain areas.

Simon Gerrard, MD of Martyn Gerrard Estate Agents, noted a pause in property searches in 2023 due to economic uncertainty. With the economy stabilising and lenders responding to controlled inflation with lower interest rates, Gerrard predicts a surge in prices, particularly in London.

Jeremy Leaf, a North London estate agent, observed increased activity in valuations, listings, and viewings.

Regional House Price Trends: Northern Ireland Leads Growth, South East Sees Decline

According to the recent Halifax House Price Index, Northern Ireland emerged as the frontrunner in annual house price growth across the UK, surging by 5.3% to an average of £195,760. Scotland and Wales also witnessed positive growth, with house prices climbing by 4% annually to £206,087 and £219,609, respectively.

Additionally, regions like the North West (+3.2%), Yorkshire and Humber (+2.8%), North East (+2.0%), and East Midlands (+0.5%) saw upticks in house prices over the past year.

More locally, things are a little different. Last month, the South East experienced the sharpest decrease in house prices, with properties fetching an average of £379,220, marking a 2.3% decline from the previous month. Meanwhile, London maintained its top spot with the highest average house price nationwide, reaching £529,528. However, prices in the capital have seen a slight annual decrease of 0.4%.

Adapting to Regional Realities: Navigating Mortgage Trends in a Dynamic Market

Looking ahead in the mortgage industry, these shifts in house prices carry significant implications. The South East's recent decline is obviously good news for buyers as it makes properties more affordable. However, it could mean higher loan-to-values for those wanting to remortgage, and those wanting to move may see the current home reduced by more than the new property. Conversely, London's continued position as the priciest market, despite a slight annual decrease, underscores its resilience amidst market fluctuations. This could indicate enduring demand but also highlights the importance of navigating affordability concerns in the capital.

As a mortgage broker, my job is to understand your needs and circumstances, explore options and demystify terms so that you can make informed decisions. My aim is to streamline the mortgage process for clients, offering clarity and peace of mind in what could otherwise be a bewildering journey. With over 20 years of experience, I'm used to helping clients navigate fluctuating market conditions to find a solution that's best for them.

Mortgage Interest Rate War 2024!

These are the headlines I’ve seen today and although they are clearly designed to grab your attention they are pretty much right in that it is widely expected that interest rates on offer to mortgage borrowers are going to decrease this year.

Unless you have been living in a cave for the last couple of years you will be aware that the UK has experienced a significant shift upwards in the Bank Of England base rate and this led to mortgage lenders increasing the rates at which they will lend to the likes of you and me. 

What happened over the last couple of years, starting with the lockdown in 2020 was that there was a great amount of inflationary pressure being put on the UK economy. The supply of money increased significantly over the “covid” period (so-called quantitative easing) and the Bank of England did not really prepare themselves for the inevitable inflation that they perhaps should have predicted. Consistently saying that the inflation was transitory throughout 2021 they did not look to use the tools at their disposal (Base Rate Increases) until 2022, at this point inflation was over 10%, their target being 2%.

Starting in December 2021 came many consecutive interest rate rises, leading to mortgage rates increasing along with those. As of the close of 2023, the Bank of England sat at 5.25% and just about two years earlier it was at the historic low of 0.1%.

So why are the headlines now saying rates are likely to decrease? The reason is mainly down to inflation. Finally, after a couple of years of the cost of living crisis, we are beginning to see inflation returning to more manageable levels. That doesn’t mean the cost of living crisis is over as prices are much higher now than they were two or three years ago. However, the rate of increase is definitely slowing. I certainly have noticed the price of fuel has come down quite a bit over recent months and that is certainly going to help on the inflation front. 

So if inflation returns to more manageable levels then the Bank of England will then turn to the economy to see what is going on there. Right now we are experiencing zero and possibly negative growth. Therefore we are on the brink of recession. I think this coupled with the reducing inflation will give the Bank of England the necessary reasons to reduce the Bank Base Rate. When this happens is difficult to predict, the Monetary Policy Committee meet later in January and it is expected they will hold rates, the decrease is likely to come later in the year.

The good news for borrowers is that “swap rates” are coming down in anticipation of the Bank of England Base Rate decreasing later this year. Swap rates are a good indication of what the lenders are likely to do as they are the rates at which lenders lend money to each other. At the time of writing we are seeing some high street lenders offering sub 4% fixed rates for five years, also the two-year deals are coming down a little. The best offerings are for those with higher deposits or higher equity of 40% or more. This has always been the case however rates are coming down for the customers with lower equity or deposit too.

My predictions are that over the course of 2024, we will see further interest rate decreases on offer from lenders and by the end of the year I predict the Bank of England Base Rate will be 4.5%. Keep an eye on a couple of other factors though. Wage increases do fuel inflation so if wages outstrip inflation (which they are not doing right now) then expect a rate rise. Another factor is the growth, or lack of, of the economy. Falling growth equals recession, this impacts lots of areas but my area of interest being house prices. If the housing market suffers that is a really big indicator of the UK recession. I would wager the Bank of England would then look to lower the Base Rate further should a recession hit. 

If you are looking to buy, move or remortgage then discuss with a broker your circumstances so that you can make an informed decision. Happy New Year everyone!